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ClinDet-Bench: Beyond Abstention, Evaluating Judgment Determinability of LLMs in Clinical Decision-Making

Paper · 2026 · Yusuke Watanabe, Yohei Kobashi, Takeshi Kojima et al.

Summary

Clinicians often have to decide with partial data, so a core skill is recognizing whether the available facts already settle a question. Existing medical and abstention benchmarks mostly assume complete inputs or treat missing data as a reason to abstain. They therefore cannot show whether a model knows when a judgment is actually possible. The authors build ClinDet-Bench from 16 guideline-backed clinical scoring systems, such as CHADS2. Synthetic cases are labeled by comparing the lowest and highest attainable total score with the decision threshold. Each model is tested only on systems it explains correctly, which separates reasoning failures from missing knowledge. Recent LLMs do well when all inputs are given. With missing inputs, however, they both jump to unsupported conclusions and refuse to answer when an answer can be derived. Error analysis shows that models fill gaps with plausible values, for example treating unmentioned findings as absent, instead of checking every possibility. The authors conclude that complete-information benchmarks overstate the clinical safety of LLMs.

Key points

  • Benchmark design: ClinDet-Bench has two tasks.
    • An Explanation Task checks knowledge of each scoring system using a one-shot prompt.
    • A Clinical Decision Task asks for 'Met', 'Not met', or 'Unable to determine'.
  • Case labels: Cases are Complete (S_min = S_max), Incomplete-Determinable (S_min ≥ T or S_max < T), or Incomplete-Undeterminable (S_min < T ≤ S_max). Each scoring system has about 12 cases, two per scenario–label combination.
  • Settings tested: Three prompting setups were evaluated: Base, Chain-of-Thought, and a "Safe" prompt that encourages abstention when uncertain. Post-hoc self-evaluation was also tested, and temperature was fixed at 1.0.
  • Main findings:
    • Models more often reached a verdict too early than declined to answer when they didn't need to.
    • Across models and prompts, reducing one error type increased the other.
    • Few-shot prompts with worked reasoning improved accuracy, but the authors consider this a non-scalable workaround.
  • Availability: The data is fully synthetic, contains no patient records, and is released under the MIT License on GitHub (yusukewatanabe1208/ClinDet_Benchmark).

Our summary of the paper, in our own words — not its text. The work belongs to its authors; read it at the links above.

 Institutions

🎓The University of TokyoTokyo · Japan90 works · 9,156 citations🎓Kyoto UniversityKyoto · Japan40 works · 8,235 citations

 Fields, topics and concepts

📚 Shelves 4The field of science this work belongs to (OpenAlex fields).Computer Science · 16,667 worksArtificial Intelligence · 16,194 worksMedicine · 241 worksHealth Informatics · 184 works

Cite

Cite as Yusuke Watanabe, Yohei Kobashi, Takeshi Kojima, Yusuke Iwasawa, Yasushi Okuno and Yutaka Matsuo. 2026. ClinDet-Bench: Beyond Abstention, Evaluating Judgment Determinability of LLMs in Clinical Decision-Making. Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 6: Industry Track).

The paper itself, not this page. BibTeX from the library's record of the work. DOI 10.18653/v1/2026.acl-industry.47

@inproceedings{watanabe2026clindet,
  title = {{ClinDet-Bench: Beyond Abstention, Evaluating Judgment Determinability of LLMs in Clinical Decision-Making}},
  author = {Yusuke Watanabe, Yohei Kobashi, Takeshi Kojima, Yusuke Iwasawa, Yasushi Okuno and Yutaka Matsuo},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 6: Industry Track)},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.18653/v1/2026.acl-industry.47},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2026.acl-industry.47}
}

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